Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Natalia Silva won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1550

Elo1481

Natalia SilvavsTereza BledaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Saturday, November 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Natalia Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:27

Style matchupNatalia Silva: Elusive strikervsTereza Bleda: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Natalia Silva wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Natalia Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Natalia Silva at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Natalia Silva enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Natalia Silva has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Natalia Silva (53.5%).
Tereza Bleda has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Natalia Silva

Red Corner

Tereza Bleda

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1550

Elo

1481

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'9"

165.1 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Natalia SilvaW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andrea Lee · Aug 23

vs Viviane Araujo · Feb 24

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 24

vs Alexa Grasso · May 25

vs Rose Namajunas · Jan 26

latest

Tereza Bleda

oldest →

vs Gabriella Fernandes · Jun 23

KOvs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Natalia SilvaMetricTereza Bleda

4.81

Strikes / min

2.92

2.36

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

66%

Strike defense

43%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.72

90%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.45Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Natalia SilvaTereza Bleda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Natalia Silva(8 fights)Tereza Bleda(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.7|Blue -68.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Natalia SilvaTargetTereza Bleda

By target zone

52% acc · 58%

Head

24% acc · 44%

78% acc · 16%

Body

70% acc · 39%

92% acc · 27%

Leg

75% acc · 17%

By position

63% acc · 91%

Distance

33% acc · 72%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

71% acc · 28%

75% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Natalia Silva rounds

even

Tereza Bleda rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control2:01

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 2Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:09

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:27Control

Round 3Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 72

Sig Strikes

18 / 47

63%

Sig Str %

41.3%

62 / 89

Total Strikes

25 / 55

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 7

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:13

Ctrl Time

4:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tereza Bleda	4 / 7	11 / 14	0 / 3	2
1	Natalia Silva	6 / 9	9 / 12	0 / 2	0
2	Tereza Bleda	10 / 22	10 / 23	1 / 4	0
2	Natalia Silva	24 / 38	37 / 51	0 / 0	0
3	Tereza Bleda	4 / 18	4 / 18	0 / 0	0
3	Natalia Silva	15 / 25	16 / 26	0 / 1	0

Natalia Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Tereza Bleda

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3