Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Natalia Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1550

Elo1499

Natalia SilvavsRose NamajunasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Natalia Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNatalia Silva: Elusive strikervsRose Namajunas: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Natalia Silva wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Natalia Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Natalia Silva at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Natalia Silva enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Natalia Silva has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Natalia Silva (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Natalia Silva

Red Corner

Rose Namajunas

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1550

Elo

1499

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Natalia SilvaW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Victoria Leonardo · May 23

vs Andrea Lee · Aug 23

vs Viviane Araujo · Feb 24

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 24

vs Alexa Grasso · May 25

latest

Rose Namajunas

oldest →

vs Manon Fiorot · Sep 23

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Natalia SilvaMetricRose Namajunas

4.81

Strikes / min

3.50

2.36

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

66%

Strike defense

63%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.47

90%

Takedown defense

62%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.45Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Natalia SilvaRose Namajunas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Natalia Silva(8 fights)Rose Namajunas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +51.0|Blue -51.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Natalia SilvaTargetRose Namajunas

By target zone

26% acc · 49%

Head

17% acc · 42%

57% acc · 16%

Body

23% acc · 12%

75% acc · 35%

Leg

71% acc · 46%

By position

38% acc · 98%

Distance

28% acc · 100%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Natalia Silva rounds

even

Rose Namajunas rounds

Round 1Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:37

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 3Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control0:47

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 133

Sig Strikes

26 / 94

36%

Sig Str %

27%

63 / 147

Total Strikes

46 / 119

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 5

50%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

2:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rose Namajunas	13 / 39	13 / 39	0 / 1
1	Natalia Silva	15 / 44	15 / 44	0 / 0
2	Rose Namajunas	5 / 18	25 / 43	1 / 3
2	Natalia Silva	8 / 27	15 / 34	0 / 1
3	Rose Namajunas	8 / 37	8 / 37	0 / 1
3	Natalia Silva	28 / 62	33 / 69	1 / 1

Natalia Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19