Middleweight

3 Rounds

Nassourdine Imavov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1541

Elo1550

Nassourdine ImavovvsBrendan AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Saturday, September 28, 2024Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Nassourdine Imavov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNassourdine Imavov: Well-roundedvsBrendan Allen: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Nassourdine Imavov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nassourdine Imavov enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Nassourdine Imavov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nassourdine Imavov has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nassourdine Imavov

Red Corner

Brendan Allen

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1541

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nassourdine ImavovW4 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Strickland · Jan 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Feb 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Jun 24

KOvs Israel Adesanya · Feb 25

vs Caio Borralho · Sep 25

latest

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Apr 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nassourdine ImavovMetricBrendan Allen

4.28

Strikes / min

3.59

3.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

58%

Strike defense

47%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

1.56

81%

Takedown defense

56%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nassourdine ImavovBrendan Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nassourdine Imavov(10 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.7|Blue +9.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nassourdine ImavovTargetBrendan Allen

By target zone

64% acc · 89%

Head

49% acc · 67%

100% acc · 9%

Body

80% acc · 13%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

63% acc · 65%

Distance

53% acc · 67%

78% acc · 12%

Clinch

60% acc · 20%

72% acc · 23%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nassourdine Imavov rounds

even

Brendan Allen rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:45Control

Round 2Nassourdine Imavov edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control3:32

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Nassourdine Imavov edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control2:15

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 86

Sig Strikes

30 / 52

56%

Sig Str %

62%

79 / 114

Total Strikes

56 / 82

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 10

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:47

Ctrl Time

6:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brendan Allen	4 / 5	21 / 24	1 / 1
1	Nassourdine Imavov	1 / 3	5 / 8	0 / 0
2	Brendan Allen	8 / 19	11 / 23	0 / 3
2	Nassourdine Imavov	23 / 33	31 / 43	0 / 0
3	Brendan Allen	18 / 28	24 / 35	0 / 6
3	Nassourdine Imavov	33 / 50	43 / 63	0 / 0

Nassourdine Imavov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19