← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nasrat Haqparast won · U-DEC

Elo1510

Elo1533

Nasrat HaqparastvsRafa GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Saturday, March 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nasrat Haqparast won

U-DEC

Style matchupNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fightervsRafa Garcia: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Nasrat Haqparast wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nasrat Haqparast at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafa Garcia enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Nasrat Haqparast (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nasrat Haqparast

Red Corner

Rafa Garcia

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+415

(19%)

1510

Elo

1533

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Rafa GarciaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Clay Guida · Apr 23

KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24

vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25

DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nasrat HaqparastMetricRafa Garcia

6.36

Strikes / min

4.28

6.00

Strikes absorbed / min

4.42

63%

Strike defense

61%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

3.22

86%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nasrat HaqparastRafa Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)Rafa Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.8|Blue +22.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nasrat HaqparastTargetRafa Garcia

By target zone

35% acc · 61%

Head

17% acc · 62%

84% acc · 38%

Body

63% acc · 29%

50% acc · 1%

Leg

71% acc · 10%

By position

46% acc · 100%

Distance

23% acc · 92%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

even

Rafa Garcia rounds

Round 1Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

99 / 217

Sig Strikes

52 / 217

44.3%

Sig Str %

23.3%

99 / 218

Total Strikes

54 / 219

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafa Garcia	15 / 59	17 / 61	0 / 2
1	Nasrat Haqparast	20 / 51	20 / 52	0 / 0
2	Rafa Garcia	24 / 87	24 / 87	0 / 1
2	Nasrat Haqparast	37 / 78	37 / 78	0 / 2
3	Rafa Garcia	13 / 71	13 / 71	0 / 0
3	Nasrat Haqparast	42 / 88	42 / 88	0 / 0

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11