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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Quillan Salkilld won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1510

Elo1602

Nasrat HaqparastvsQuillan SalkilldUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Quillan Salkilld won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fightervsQuillan Salkilld: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Quillan Salkilld wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Quillan Salkilld wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Quillan Salkilld at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nasrat Haqparast enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Quillan Salkilld enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Nasrat Haqparast has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Nasrat Haqparast (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nasrat Haqparast

Red Corner

Quillan Salkilld

Blue Corner

+102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1510

Elo

1602

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nasrat HaqparastW5 streak

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Sep 22

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

latest

Quillan SalkilldW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anshul Jubli · Feb 25

vs Yanal Ashmouz · Jun 25

SUBvs Jamie Mullarkey · Jan 26

KOvs Beneil Dariush · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nasrat HaqparastMetricQuillan Salkilld

6.36

Strikes / min

5.01

6.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

63%

Strike defense

45%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

7.25

86%

Takedown defense

80%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.36Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap+1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nasrat HaqparastQuillan Salkilld

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)Quillan Salkilld(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -92.4|Blue +92.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nasrat HaqparastTargetQuillan Salkilld

By target zone

70% acc · 70%

Head

25% acc · 43%

100% acc · 20%

Body

70% acc · 50%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

75% acc · 90%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

even

Quillan Salkilld rounds

Round 1Quillan Salkilld edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 13

Sig Strikes

14 / 36

76%

Sig Str %

38%

10 / 13

Total Strikes

14 / 36

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Quillan Salkilld	14 / 36	14 / 36	0 / 4	0
1	Nasrat Haqparast	10 / 13	10 / 13	0 / 0	0

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Quillan Salkilld

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4