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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nasrat Haqparast won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1500

Nasrat HaqparastvsMarc DiakieseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Sunday, July 22, 2018Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Nasrat Haqparast won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fightervsMarc Diakiese: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Nasrat Haqparast wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nasrat Haqparast at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nasrat Haqparast has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nasrat Haqparast has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nasrat Haqparast (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nasrat Haqparast

Red Corner

Marc Diakiese

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1510

Elo

1500

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Marc Diakiese

oldest →

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22

vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23

vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nasrat HaqparastMetricMarc Diakiese

6.36

Strikes / min

2.54

6.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

63%

Strike defense

52%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

3.29

86%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nasrat HaqparastMarc Diakiese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)Marc Diakiese(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.3|Blue -10.3

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nasrat HaqparastTargetMarc Diakiese

By target zone

44% acc · 85%

Head

14% acc · 56%

64% acc · 8%

Body

83% acc · 40%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

44% acc · 81%

Distance

22% acc · 98%

91% acc · 11%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

47% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

even

Marc Diakiese rounds

Round 1Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:07

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:19

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 198

Sig Strikes

50 / 220

46.3%

Sig Str %

23.3%

102 / 208

Total Strikes

50 / 220

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marc Diakiese	15 / 47	15 / 47	0 / 1
1	Nasrat Haqparast	24 / 52	24 / 52	0 / 1
2	Marc Diakiese	18 / 92	18 / 92	0 / 0
2	Nasrat Haqparast	31 / 69	38 / 76	0 / 0
3	Marc Diakiese	17 / 81	17 / 81	0 / 3
3	Nasrat Haqparast	38 / 77	40 / 80	0 / 1

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14