← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nasrat Haqparast won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1492

Nasrat HaqparastvsLandon QuinonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Saturday, September 9, 2023Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Nasrat Haqparast won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fightervsLandon Quinones: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Nasrat Haqparast wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nasrat Haqparast at -520 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Nasrat Haqparast

Red Corner

Landon Quinones

Blue Corner

-520

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+350

(22%)

1510

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Sep 22

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Landon Quinones

oldest →

vs MarQuel Mederos · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nasrat HaqparastMetricLandon Quinones

6.36

Strikes / min

6.77

6.00

Strikes absorbed / min

7.70

63%

Strike defense

55%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.50

86%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.36Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nasrat HaqparastLandon Quinones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)Landon Quinones(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.0|Blue -18.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nasrat HaqparastTargetLandon Quinones

By target zone

114

38% acc · 67%

Head

29% acc · 53%

78% acc · 33%

Body

80% acc · 25%

Leg

91% acc · 22%

By position

161

45% acc · 94%

Distance

137

40% acc · 93%

63% acc · 6%

Clinch

79% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

even

Landon Quinones rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:09

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes59

Takedowns0

Control0:11

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes69

Takedowns0

Control0:01

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

171 / 377

Sig Strikes

148 / 354

44.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

172 / 378

Total Strikes

152 / 359

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Landon Quinones	44 / 103	47 / 106	0 / 0
1	Nasrat Haqparast	43 / 98	43 / 98	0 / 0
2	Landon Quinones	54 / 115	55 / 117	0 / 0
2	Nasrat Haqparast	59 / 135	60 / 136	0 / 2
3	Landon Quinones	50 / 136	50 / 136	0 / 0
3	Nasrat Haqparast	69 / 144	69 / 144	0 / 3

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Landon Quinones

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2