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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nasrat Haqparast won · S-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1483

Nasrat HaqparastvsJared GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Saturday, June 22, 2024Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Nasrat Haqparast won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fightervsJared Gordon: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Nasrat Haqparast wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nasrat Haqparast at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nasrat Haqparast has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nasrat Haqparast (53.5%).
Nasrat Haqparast has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nasrat Haqparast

Red Corner

Jared Gordon

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1510

Elo

1483

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Sep 22

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 22

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nasrat HaqparastMetricJared Gordon

6.36

Strikes / min

5.57

6.00

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

63%

Strike defense

55%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

1.91

86%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.36Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nasrat HaqparastJared Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)Jared Gordon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.4|Blue -27.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nasrat HaqparastTargetJared Gordon

By target zone

122

42% acc · 84%

Head

125

45% acc · 89%

85% acc · 16%

Body

63% acc · 9%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

80% acc · 3%

By position

133

45% acc · 91%

Distance

128

47% acc · 91%

80% acc · 5%

Clinch

52% acc · 9%

63% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

even

Jared Gordon rounds

Round 1Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:03

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 2Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

55Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 3Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes74

Takedowns0

Control0:00

70Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

146 / 316

Sig Strikes

141 / 299

47.7%

Sig Str %

45%

156 / 330

Total Strikes

170 / 338

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 13

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

2:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Gordon	16 / 56	21 / 63	0 / 7
1	Nasrat Haqparast	35 / 64	35 / 66	0 / 0
2	Jared Gordon	55 / 88	79 / 120	0 / 1
2	Nasrat Haqparast	37 / 80	47 / 91	0 / 0
3	Jared Gordon	70 / 155	70 / 155	0 / 5
3	Nasrat Haqparast	74 / 172	74 / 173	0 / 0

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17