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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nasrat Haqparast won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1510

Elo1490

Nasrat HaqparastvsJamie MullarkeyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Saturday, December 9, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nasrat Haqparast won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:44

Style matchupNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fightervsJamie Mullarkey: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Nasrat Haqparast wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nasrat Haqparast at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nasrat Haqparast has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nasrat Haqparast (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nasrat Haqparast

Red Corner

Jamie Mullarkey

Blue Corner

-198

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1510

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Sep 22

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Jamie Mullarkey

oldest →

KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 23

vs John Makdessi · Sep 23

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · May 24

vs Rolando Bedoya · Sep 25

SUBvs Quillan Salkilld · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nasrat HaqparastMetricJamie Mullarkey

6.36

Strikes / min

4.10

6.00

Strikes absorbed / min

4.28

63%

Strike defense

54%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

2.46

86%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nasrat HaqparastJamie Mullarkey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)Jamie Mullarkey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.0|Blue -20.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nasrat HaqparastTargetJamie Mullarkey

By target zone

52% acc · 88%

Head

19% acc · 38%

100% acc · 13%

Body

50% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 38%

By position

31% acc · 25%

Distance

35% acc · 100%

75% acc · 38%

Clinch

75% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

even

Jamie Mullarkey rounds

Round 1Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns2

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 29

Sig Strikes

8 / 23

55%

Sig Str %

34%

18 / 31

Total Strikes

8 / 23

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jamie Mullarkey	8 / 23	8 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Nasrat Haqparast	16 / 29	18 / 31	0 / 0	0

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Jamie Mullarkey

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights13