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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nasrat Haqparast won · S-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1501

Nasrat HaqparastvsEsteban RibovicsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · Saturday, March 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nasrat Haqparast won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fightervsEsteban Ribovics: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Esteban Ribovics wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Nasrat Haqparast wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Esteban Ribovics at -260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nasrat Haqparast has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nasrat Haqparast (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nasrat Haqparast

Red Corner

Esteban Ribovics

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1510

Elo

1501

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Sep 22

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Esteban Ribovics

oldest →

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jul 23

KOvs Terrance McKinney · May 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 24

vs Elves Brener · Aug 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nasrat HaqparastMetricEsteban Ribovics

6.36

Strikes / min

7.27

6.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

63%

Strike defense

54%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.35

86%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.36Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+1.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nasrat HaqparastEsteban Ribovics

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)Esteban Ribovics(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.9|Blue -8.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nasrat HaqparastTargetEsteban Ribovics

By target zone

103

44% acc · 76%

Head

120

30% acc · 82%

76% acc · 19%

Body

63% acc · 12%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

91% acc · 7%

By position

134

49% acc · 99%

Distance

147

34% acc · 100%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

even

Esteban Ribovics rounds

Round 1Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:00

62Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns1

Control0:49

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

135 / 273

Sig Strikes

147 / 433

49.3%

Sig Str %

33.3%

135 / 273

Total Strikes

149 / 436

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

20%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:49

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Esteban Ribovics	36 / 107	36 / 107	0 / 0
1	Nasrat Haqparast	33 / 64	33 / 64	0 / 0
2	Esteban Ribovics	62 / 183	62 / 183	0 / 0
2	Nasrat Haqparast	49 / 104	49 / 104	0 / 0
3	Esteban Ribovics	49 / 143	51 / 146	0 / 0
3	Nasrat Haqparast	53 / 105	53 / 105	1 / 5

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Esteban Ribovics

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6