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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kajan Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1368

Naoyuki KotanivsKajan JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · Saturday, September 26, 2015Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Kajan Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kajan Johnson wins(84.0%)

Actual result: Kajan Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kajan Johnson at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kajan Johnson has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kajan Johnson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Naoyuki Kotani (53.5%).
Kajan Johnson has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Naoyuki Kotani

Red Corner

Kajan Johnson

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1355

Elo

1368

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

167.64 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Naoyuki KotaniL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Norman Parke · Jul 14

SUBvs Yan Cabral · Oct 14

latest

Kajan JohnsonL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Zhang Lipeng · May 15

KOvs Adriano Martins · Sep 17

vs Stevie Ray · Mar 18

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jul 18

vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Naoyuki KotaniMetricKajan Johnson

1.02

Strikes / min

2.47

2.89

Strikes absorbed / min

1.59

50%

Strike defense

64%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

1.54

46%

Takedown defense

62%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.87Δ 2.75 — meaningful gap+0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Naoyuki KotaniKajan Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Naoyuki Kotani(3 fights)Kajan Johnson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.2|Blue +12.2

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Naoyuki KotaniTargetKajan Johnson

By target zone

38% acc · 71%

Head

53% acc · 88%

20% acc · 10%

Body

75% acc · 11%

80% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

28% acc · 62%

Distance

41% acc · 42%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

89% acc · 38%

Ground

70% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Naoyuki Kotani rounds

even

Kajan Johnson rounds

Round 1Kajan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kajan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Naoyuki Kotani edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:42

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 55

Sig Strikes

57 / 104

31%

Sig Str %

49%

61 / 95

Total Strikes

59 / 108

1 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

8.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:42

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kajan Johnson	13 / 31	13 / 32	0 / 0
1	Naoyuki Kotani	1 / 8	1 / 8	0 / 1
2	Kajan Johnson	38 / 59	40 / 61	0 / 0
2	Naoyuki Kotani	6 / 20	6 / 20	0 / 3
3	Kajan Johnson	6 / 14	6 / 15	0 / 0
3	Naoyuki Kotani	14 / 27	54 / 67	1 / 4

Naoyuki Kotani

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3

Kajan Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7