Flyweight

3 Rounds

Naoki Inoue won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1363

Naoki InouevsCarls John De TomasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · Saturday, June 17, 2017Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Naoki Inoue won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Naoki Inoue wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Naoki Inoue wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Naoki Inoue at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Naoki Inoue has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Carls John De Tomas (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Naoki Inoue

Red Corner

Carls John De Tomas

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1491

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'5"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Naoki Inoue

oldest →

vs Matt Schnell · Jun 18

latest

Carls John De Tomas

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Perez · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Naoki InoueMetricCarls John De Tomas

3.67

Strikes / min

1.74

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.93

60%

Strike defense

44%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.37

60%

Takedown defense

66%

2.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30Δ 2.49 — meaningful gap-2.19

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Naoki Inoue(2 fights)Carls John De Tomas(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.2|Blue -128.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Naoki InoueTargetCarls John De Tomas

By target zone

49% acc · 76%

Head

36% acc · 63%

67% acc · 3%

Body

33% acc · 3%

72% acc · 21%

Leg

56% acc · 33%

By position

47% acc · 56%

Distance

36% acc · 70%

88% acc · 11%

Clinch

70% acc · 23%

61% acc · 32%

Ground

40% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Naoki Inoue rounds

even

Carls John De Tomas rounds

Round 1Naoki Inoue edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control3:14

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Naoki Inoue edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control1:58

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Naoki Inoue edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control3:26

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 116

Sig Strikes

30 / 74

53%

Sig Str %

40%

151 / 228

Total Strikes

53 / 102

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:38

Ctrl Time

1:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carls John De Tomas	5 / 16	15 / 29	1 / 2	0
1	Naoki Inoue	10 / 20	40 / 54	0 / 0	1
2	Carls John De Tomas	15 / 38	17 / 40	0 / 1	0
2	Naoki Inoue	37 / 70	62 / 104	0 / 0	4
3	Carls John De Tomas	10 / 20	21 / 33	1 / 1	0
3	Naoki Inoue	15 / 26	49 / 70	0 / 2	0

Naoki Inoue

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2

Carls John De Tomas

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2