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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Omielanczuk won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1490
Elo1361

Nandor GuelminovsDaniel OmielanczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Daniel Omielanczuk won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:18

Style matchupNandor Guelmino: StrikervsDaniel Omielanczuk: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Nandor Guelmino wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Daniel Omielanczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nandor Guelmino at +230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daniel Omielanczuk enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Daniel Omielanczuk has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Daniel Omielanczuk has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Omielanczuk (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nandor Guelmino
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Omielanczuk
Blue Corner
+230
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
1490
Elo
1361
50
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nandor GuelminoNo prior UFC fights on record.
Daniel OmielanczukL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jarjis Danho · Feb 16
W
vs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 16
L
SUBvs Stefan Struve · Oct 16
L
DECvs Tim Johnson · Mar 17
L
vs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nandor GuelminoMetricDaniel Omielanczuk
3.62
Strikes / min
3.09
3.16
Strikes absorbed / min
3.29
33%
Strike defense
47%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.56
42%
Takedown defense
68%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.20
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Nandor Guelmino(1 fights)Daniel Omielanczuk(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +129.3|Blue -129.3
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nandor GuelminoTargetDaniel Omielanczuk

By target zone

16
33% acc · 29%
Head
22
54% acc · 45%
29
74% acc · 52%
Body
7
70% acc · 14%
11
92% acc · 20%
Leg
20
91% acc · 41%

By position

29
43% acc · 52%
Distance
28
56% acc · 57%
17
89% acc · 30%
Clinch
18
95% acc · 37%
10
83% acc · 18%
Ground
3
75% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Nandor Guelmino rounds
2
even
1
Daniel Omielanczuk rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:09
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:18Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control3:34
11Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:53Control
Round 3Daniel Omielanczuk edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns0
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:09Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
56 / 99
Sig Strikes
49 / 73
59%
Sig Str %
68.3%
75 / 123
Total Strikes
57 / 82
0 / 3
TDs
2 / 5
0%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
3:48
Ctrl Time
4:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Omielanczuk22 / 3625 / 400 / 30
1Nandor Guelmino25 / 4729 / 510 / 10
2Daniel Omielanczuk11 / 1616 / 212 / 21
2Nandor Guelmino13 / 1823 / 330 / 00
3Daniel Omielanczuk16 / 2116 / 210 / 00
3Nandor Guelmino18 / 3423 / 390 / 20

Nandor Guelmino

Stance—
Height75.0"
Reach—
Fights1

Daniel Omielanczuk

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9