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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Vaughan Lee won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1355

Nam PhanvsVaughan LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · Saturday, March 1, 2014Macau, China

Official fight result

Vaughan Lee won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNam Phan: Pressure fightervsVaughan Lee: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Vaughan Lee wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Vaughan Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vaughan Lee at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vaughan Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Vaughan Lee has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nam Phan has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nam Phan

Red Corner

Vaughan Lee

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1353

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nam PhanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Leonard Garcia · Oct 11

vs Jimy Hettes · Dec 11

vs Cole Miller · Aug 12

vs Dennis Siver · Dec 12

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Dec 13

latest

Vaughan LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs TJ Dillashaw · Jul 12

vs Motonobu Tezuka · Feb 13

SUBvs Raphael Assuncao · Jun 13

KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 14

vs Paddy Holohan · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nam PhanMetricVaughan Lee

4.52

Strikes / min

3.47

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.07

59%

Strike defense

70%

0.18

TDs / 15 min

0.81

60%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.03Δ 3.43 — meaningful gap+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nam PhanVaughan Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nam Phan(8 fights)Vaughan Lee(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +3.5|Blue -3.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -181.0|Blue +181.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nam PhanTargetVaughan Lee

By target zone

7% acc · 46%

Head

37% acc · 51%

36% acc · 33%

Body

59% acc · 33%

56% acc · 21%

Leg

66% acc · 16%

By position

13% acc · 100%

Distance

141

45% acc · 99%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nam Phan rounds

even

Vaughan Lee rounds

Round 1Vaughan Lee edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

58Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Vaughan Lee edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:07

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Vaughan Lee edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:06

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 189

Sig Strikes

142 / 311

12.7%

Sig Str %

45%

24 / 190

Total Strikes

145 / 314

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vaughan Lee	58 / 113	58 / 113	0 / 0
1	Nam Phan	6 / 75	6 / 76	0 / 2
2	Vaughan Lee	35 / 85	37 / 87	0 / 0
2	Nam Phan	12 / 69	12 / 69	0 / 2
3	Vaughan Lee	49 / 113	50 / 114	0 / 1
3	Nam Phan	6 / 45	6 / 45	0 / 1

Nam Phan

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Vaughan Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights8