← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Leonard Garcia won · S-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1352

Nam PhanvsLeonard GarciaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · Saturday, December 4, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Leonard Garcia won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Leonard Garcia wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Leonard Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonard Garcia at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nam Phan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Leonard Garcia enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Nam Phan has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nam Phan

Red Corner

Leonard Garcia

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nam PhanL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jimy Hettes · Dec 11

vs Cole Miller · Aug 12

vs Dennis Siver · Dec 12

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Dec 13

vs Vaughan Lee · Mar 14

latest

Leonard GarciaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chan Sung Jung · Mar 11

vs Nam Phan · Oct 11

vs Matt Grice · Jun 12

vs Max Holloway · Dec 12

vs Cody McKenzie · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nam PhanMetricLeonard Garcia

4.52

Strikes / min

2.77

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

4.79

59%

Strike defense

52%

0.18

TDs / 15 min

0.30

60%

Takedown defense

42%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.03evenly matched on net striking-2.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nam PhanLeonard Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nam Phan(8 fights)Leonard Garcia(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nam PhanTargetLeonard Garcia

By target zone

40% acc · 78%

Head

16% acc · 63%

77% acc · 17%

Body

59% acc · 25%

83% acc · 5%

Leg

73% acc · 13%

By position

43% acc · 91%

Distance

21% acc · 91%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

86% acc · 9%

60% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nam Phan rounds

even

Leonard Garcia rounds

Round 1Nam Phan edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:08

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nam Phan edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control2:27

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Nam Phan edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:06

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

102 / 227

Sig Strikes

64 / 282

45.3%

Sig Str %

23.7%

116 / 241

Total Strikes

70 / 288

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

2:41

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Leonard Garcia	30 / 111	30 / 111	0 / 0	0
1	Nam Phan	33 / 71	33 / 71	0 / 0	0
2	Leonard Garcia	13 / 46	18 / 51	1 / 1	0
2	Nam Phan	34 / 63	45 / 74	0 / 0	1
3	Leonard Garcia	21 / 125	22 / 126	1 / 2	0
3	Nam Phan	35 / 93	38 / 96	0 / 0	0

Nam Phan

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Leonard Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6