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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nad Narimani won · U-DEC R3

Elo1386

Elo1493

Nad NarimanivsAnderson Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Saturday, November 17, 2018Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Official fight result

Nad Narimani won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNad Narimani: Well-roundedvsAnderson Dos Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Nad Narimani wins(85.7%)

Actual result: Nad Narimani wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nad Narimani at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Nad Narimani

Red Corner

Anderson Dos Santos

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1386

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nad NarimaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs Khalid Taha · Jul 18

KOvs Mike Grundy · Mar 19

vs Grant Dawson · Jul 20

latest

Anderson Dos Santos

oldest →

vs Andre Ewell · Jun 19

SUBvs Martin Day · Nov 20

KOvs Miles Johns · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nad NarimaniMetricAnderson Dos Santos

3.33

Strikes / min

2.70

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.37

58%

Strike defense

49%

1.92

TDs / 15 min

0.98

70%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap-2.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nad NarimaniAnderson Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nad Narimani(4 fights)Anderson Dos Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -107.0|Blue +107.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nad NarimaniTargetAnderson Dos Santos

By target zone

39% acc · 75%

Head

21% acc · 70%

75% acc · 11%

Body

88% acc · 15%

86% acc · 14%

Leg

88% acc · 15%

By position

38% acc · 68%

Distance

24% acc · 85%

91% acc · 12%

Clinch

83% acc · 11%

65% acc · 20%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nad Narimani rounds

even

Anderson Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Nad Narimani edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nad Narimani edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:48

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Nad Narimani edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control1:53

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 186

Sig Strikes

46 / 170

46.3%

Sig Str %

29%

111 / 220

Total Strikes

50 / 174

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:41

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anderson Dos Santos	17 / 70	17 / 70	0 / 0	0
1	Nad Narimani	31 / 83	31 / 83	0 / 0	0
2	Anderson Dos Santos	13 / 32	15 / 34	0 / 1	0
2	Nad Narimani	18 / 34	34 / 55	1 / 3	0
3	Anderson Dos Santos	16 / 68	18 / 70	0 / 0	1
3	Nad Narimani	35 / 69	46 / 82	0 / 2	0

Nad Narimani

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Anderson Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4