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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Muslim Salikhov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1507

Elo1511

Muslim SalikhovvsCarlos LealUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · Saturday, July 26, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Muslim Salikhov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:42

Style matchupMuslim Salikhov: Well-roundedvsCarlos Leal: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Muslim Salikhov wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Muslim Salikhov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muslim Salikhov at +380 American odds

+$380 profit

$480 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Muslim Salikhov is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Carlos Leal has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Carlos Leal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Muslim Salikhov has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Muslim Salikhov has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Carlos Leal has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Carlos Leal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Muslim Salikhov

Red Corner

Carlos Leal

Blue Corner

+380

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-490

(83%)

1507

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muslim Salikhov

oldest →

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jun 23

KOvs Randy Brown · Feb 24

vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 24

KOvs Song Kenan · Nov 24

KOvs Uros Medic · Nov 25

latest

Carlos LealW2 streak

oldest →

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Oct 24

KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 25

vs Chidi Njokuani · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muslim SalikhovMetricCarlos Leal

3.37

Strikes / min

8.75

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

7.78

62%

Strike defense

48%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

0.43

72%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muslim SalikhovCarlos Leal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muslim Salikhov(10 fights)Carlos Leal(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.0|Blue +4.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muslim SalikhovTargetCarlos Leal

By target zone

25% acc · 33%

Head

56% acc · 100%

25% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

63% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muslim Salikhov rounds

even

Carlos Leal rounds

Round 1Muslim Salikhov edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 9

Sig Strikes

5 / 9

33%

Sig Str %

55%

3 / 9

Total Strikes

5 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlos Leal	5 / 9	5 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Muslim Salikhov	3 / 9	3 / 9	0 / 0	0

Muslim Salikhov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Carlos Leal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4