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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Garcia won · SUB R2

Elo1507

Elo1368

Muslim SalikhovvsAlex GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · Saturday, November 25, 2017Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Alex Garcia won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:22

Style matchupMuslim Salikhov: Well-roundedvsAlex Garcia: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alex Garcia wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Alex Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Garcia at +180 American odds

+$180 profit

$280 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Garcia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Muslim Salikhov

Red Corner

Alex Garcia

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1507

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muslim Salikhov

oldest →

KOvs Randy Brown · Feb 24

vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 24

KOvs Song Kenan · Nov 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Jul 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Nov 25

latest

Alex GarciaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 16

KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 16

vs Tim Means · Jun 17

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muslim SalikhovMetricAlex Garcia

3.37

Strikes / min

1.81

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

62%

Strike defense

59%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

3.72

72%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muslim SalikhovAlex Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muslim Salikhov(10 fights)Alex Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.1|Blue -139.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +48.6|Blue -48.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muslim SalikhovTargetAlex Garcia

By target zone

25% acc · 40%

Head

25% acc · 100%

38% acc · 30%

Body

100% acc · 30%

Leg

By position

37% acc · 100%

Distance

20% acc · 67%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

67% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muslim Salikhov rounds

even

Alex Garcia rounds

Round 1Alex Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 2Alex Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 27

Sig Strikes

6 / 24

36.5%

Sig Str %

24.5%

10 / 27

Total Strikes

21 / 39

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Garcia	2 / 12	12 / 22	2 / 4	0
1	Muslim Salikhov	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Alex Garcia	4 / 12	9 / 17	1 / 3	1
2	Muslim Salikhov	3 / 13	3 / 13	0 / 0	0

Muslim Salikhov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Alex Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10