← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jakub Wiklacz won · SUB R3

Elo1489

Elo1535

Muin GafurovvsJakub WiklaczUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Saturday, February 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jakub Wiklacz won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:59

Model Prediction: Jakub Wiklacz wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Jakub Wiklacz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jakub Wiklacz at +108 American odds

+$108 profit

$208 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jakub Wiklacz threatens submissions; Muin Gafurov has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Muin Gafurov has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jakub Wiklacz has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Muin Gafurov

Red Corner

Jakub Wiklacz

Blue Corner

-126

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1489

Elo

1535

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muin GafurovW2 streak

oldest →

vs John Castaneda · Jun 23

SUBvs Said Nurmagomedov · Oct 23

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 24

vs Rinya Nakamura · Jan 25

latest

Jakub Wiklacz

oldest →

vs Patchy Mix · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muin GafurovMetricJakub Wiklacz

3.36

Strikes / min

3.40

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.87

55%

Strike defense

46%

1.57

TDs / 15 min

0.00

70%

Takedown defense

41%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muin GafurovJakub Wiklacz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muin Gafurov(5 fights)Jakub Wiklacz(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -46.4|Blue +46.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +259.0|Blue -259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muin GafurovTargetJakub Wiklacz

By target zone

39% acc · 54%

Head

26% acc · 41%

79% acc · 43%

Body

57% acc · 57%

40% acc · 3%

Leg

33% acc · 2%

By position

47% acc · 86%

Distance

33% acc · 79%

79% acc · 14%

Clinch

78% acc · 13%

Ground

83% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muin Gafurov rounds

even

Jakub Wiklacz rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:38

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jakub Wiklacz edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:14

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:19Control

Round 3Muin Gafurov edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns1

Control0:52

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 158

Sig Strikes

56 / 148

46%

Sig Str %

44.7%

92 / 174

Total Strikes

97 / 193

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:44

Ctrl Time

4:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jakub Wiklacz	27 / 67	30 / 71	0 / 0	0
1	Muin Gafurov	27 / 61	27 / 61	0 / 2	0
2	Jakub Wiklacz	7 / 11	45 / 51	0 / 0	1
2	Muin Gafurov	2 / 5	11 / 17	1 / 2	0
3	Jakub Wiklacz	22 / 70	22 / 71	0 / 0	1
3	Muin Gafurov	50 / 92	54 / 96	1 / 1	0

Muin Gafurov

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Jakub Wiklacz

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2