Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mairon Santos won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1514

Elo1558

Muhammad NaimovvsMairon SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mairon Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:21

Style matchupMuhammad Naimov: Well-roundedvsMairon Santos: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Mairon Santos wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Mairon Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mairon Santos at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mairon Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mairon Santos is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Muhammad Naimov has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mairon Santos has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Muhammad Naimov

Red Corner

Mairon Santos

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1514

Elo

1558

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muhammad NaimovW2 streak

oldest →

vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 23

KOvs Erik Silva · Feb 24

SUBvs Felipe Lima · Jun 24

vs Kaan Ofli · Feb 25

vs Bogdan Grad · Jun 25

latest

Mairon SantosW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kaan Ofli · Aug 24

vs Francis Marshall · Mar 25

vs Sodiq Yusuff · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muhammad NaimovMetricMairon Santos

2.51

Strikes / min

3.33

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.24

44%

Strike defense

65%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.00

68%

Takedown defense

69%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.84Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muhammad NaimovMairon Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muhammad Naimov(7 fights)Mairon Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.2|Blue +44.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muhammad NaimovTargetMairon Santos

By target zone

24% acc · 39%

Head

41% acc · 41%

60% acc · 33%

Body

80% acc · 30%

56% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

33% acc · 72%

Distance

56% acc · 70%

63% acc · 28%

Clinch

88% acc · 26%

Ground

33% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muhammad Naimov rounds

even

Mairon Santos rounds

Round 1Muhammad Naimov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Mairon Santos edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:08

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Mairon Santos edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 48

Sig Strikes

27 / 45

36.3%

Sig Str %

59.3%

35 / 69

Total Strikes

43 / 61

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:08

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mairon Santos	7 / 15	15 / 23	0 / 0
1	Muhammad Naimov	11 / 18	20 / 30	0 / 2
2	Mairon Santos	16 / 24	24 / 32	0 / 1
2	Muhammad Naimov	6 / 26	14 / 35	0 / 3
3	Mairon Santos	4 / 6	4 / 6	0 / 0
3	Muhammad Naimov	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0

Muhammad Naimov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Mairon Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4