Featherweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Naimov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1551

Muhammad NaimovvsKaan OfliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 1, 2025Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Muhammad Naimov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Muhammad Naimov wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Muhammad Naimov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muhammad Naimov at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kaan Ofli enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Kaan Ofli threatens submissions; Muhammad Naimov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kaan Ofli has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Muhammad Naimov has 68pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Muhammad Naimov has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Muhammad Naimov

Red Corner

Kaan Ofli

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1514

Elo

1551

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muhammad Naimov

oldest →

vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 23

KOvs Erik Silva · Feb 24

SUBvs Felipe Lima · Jun 24

vs Bogdan Grad · Jun 25

KOvs Mairon Santos · Dec 25

latest

Kaan OfliW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mairon Santos · Aug 24

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Oct 25

vs Yizha · Jan 26

SUBvs Javier Reyes · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muhammad NaimovMetricKaan Ofli

2.51

Strikes / min

2.33

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

44%

Strike defense

54%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.38

68%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.84evenly matched on net striking-1.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muhammad NaimovKaan Ofli

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muhammad Naimov(7 fights)Kaan Ofli(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.9|Blue +37.9

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muhammad NaimovTargetKaan Ofli

By target zone

29% acc · 72%

Head

17% acc · 16%

67% acc · 25%

Body

76% acc · 52%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 32%

By position

30% acc · 69%

Distance

32% acc · 45%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

77% acc · 55%

31% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muhammad Naimov rounds

even

Kaan Ofli rounds

Round 1Muhammad Naimov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:55

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:16

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:03Control

Round 3Muhammad Naimov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control3:25

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 92

Sig Strikes

31 / 66

34.3%

Sig Str %

47.3%

79 / 176

Total Strikes

57 / 97

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 6

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:36

Ctrl Time

3:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kaan Ofli	11 / 27	23 / 41	0 / 1
1	Muhammad Naimov	14 / 34	32 / 56	1 / 1
2	Kaan Ofli	11 / 21	19 / 31	0 / 3
2	Muhammad Naimov	10 / 33	25 / 51	1 / 1
3	Kaan Ofli	9 / 18	15 / 25	0 / 2
3	Muhammad Naimov	8 / 25	22 / 69	0 / 0

Muhammad Naimov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Kaan Ofli

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5