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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Felipe Lima won · SUB R3

Elo1514

Elo1504

Muhammad NaimovvsFelipe LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Saturday, June 22, 2024Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Felipe Lima won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:15

Style matchupMuhammad Naimov: Well-roundedvsFelipe Lima: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Muhammad Naimov wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Felipe Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muhammad Naimov at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Lima threatens submissions; Muhammad Naimov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Felipe Lima has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Felipe Lima has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Muhammad Naimov

Red Corner

Felipe Lima

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+114

(47%)

1514

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muhammad Naimov

oldest →

vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 23

KOvs Erik Silva · Feb 24

vs Kaan Ofli · Feb 25

vs Bogdan Grad · Jun 25

KOvs Mairon Santos · Dec 25

latest

Felipe Lima

oldest →

vs Miles Johns · Dec 24

vs Payton Talbott · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muhammad NaimovMetricFelipe Lima

2.51

Strikes / min

2.86

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

44%

Strike defense

64%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

2.18

68%

Takedown defense

85%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.84evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muhammad NaimovFelipe Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muhammad Naimov(7 fights)Felipe Lima(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.1|Blue -9.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muhammad NaimovTargetFelipe Lima

By target zone

23% acc · 47%

Head

27% acc · 27%

40% acc · 20%

Body

74% acc · 38%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

93% acc · 35%

By position

36% acc · 87%

Distance

52% acc · 84%

29% acc · 7%

Clinch

60% acc · 16%

33% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muhammad Naimov rounds

even

Felipe Lima rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:14

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Felipe Lima edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:22

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 85

Sig Strikes

37 / 70

36.7%

Sig Str %

45.3%

55 / 120

Total Strikes

62 / 98

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 2

16.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

1:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felipe Lima	14 / 23	35 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Muhammad Naimov	7 / 19	31 / 53	1 / 2	0
2	Felipe Lima	21 / 36	24 / 39	0 / 1	0
2	Muhammad Naimov	18 / 54	18 / 54	0 / 2	0
3	Felipe Lima	2 / 11	3 / 12	1 / 1	1
3	Muhammad Naimov	5 / 12	6 / 13	0 / 1	0

Muhammad Naimov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Felipe Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3