← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Naimov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1481

Muhammad NaimovvsBogdan GradUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, June 21, 2025Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Muhammad Naimov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMuhammad Naimov: Well-roundedvsBogdan Grad: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Bogdan Grad wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Muhammad Naimov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bogdan Grad at +205 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bogdan Grad is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Muhammad Naimov has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Muhammad Naimov

Red Corner

Bogdan Grad

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1514

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muhammad Naimov

oldest →

vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 23

KOvs Erik Silva · Feb 24

SUBvs Felipe Lima · Jun 24

vs Kaan Ofli · Feb 25

KOvs Mairon Santos · Dec 25

latest

Bogdan Grad

oldest →

KOvs Lucas Alexander · Feb 25

KOvs Luke Riley · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muhammad NaimovMetricBogdan Grad

2.51

Strikes / min

4.06

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

5.06

44%

Strike defense

49%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

4.22

68%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.84evenly matched on net striking-1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muhammad NaimovBogdan Grad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muhammad Naimov(7 fights)Bogdan Grad(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.0|Blue -33.0

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muhammad NaimovTargetBogdan Grad

By target zone

24% acc · 61%

Head

23% acc · 23%

100% acc · 17%

Body

74% acc · 45%

67% acc · 22%

Leg

67% acc · 32%

By position

32% acc · 89%

Distance

39% acc · 58%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

72% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muhammad Naimov rounds

even

Bogdan Grad rounds

Round 1Bogdan Grad edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:23

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 2Bogdan Grad edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:30

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 54

Sig Strikes

31 / 64

30.3%

Sig Str %

47.7%

70 / 119

Total Strikes

49 / 88

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 10

33.3%

TD %

30.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:53

Ctrl Time

5:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bogdan Grad	15 / 30	23 / 39	1 / 3	0
1	Muhammad Naimov	10 / 22	24 / 39	0 / 1	0
2	Bogdan Grad	10 / 21	15 / 27	1 / 4	0
2	Muhammad Naimov	6 / 21	12 / 29	0 / 1	1
3	Bogdan Grad	6 / 13	11 / 22	1 / 3	0
3	Muhammad Naimov	2 / 11	34 / 51	1 / 1	0

Muhammad Naimov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Bogdan Grad

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3