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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Mokaev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1528

Elo1558

Muhammad MokaevvsManel KapeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Muhammad Mokaev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMuhammad Mokaev: WrestlervsManel Kape: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev wins(81.4%)

Actual result: Muhammad Mokaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muhammad Mokaev at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Manel Kape enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Manel Kape has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Manel Kape (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Muhammad Mokaev

Red Corner

Manel Kape

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1528

Elo

1558

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muhammad MokaevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Charles Johnson · Jul 22

SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Oct 22

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 23

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Oct 23

vs Alex Perez · Mar 24

latest

Manel KapeW5 streak

oldest →

vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 23

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24

KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25

KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muhammad MokaevMetricManel Kape

1.61

Strikes / min

5.04

1.35

Strikes absorbed / min

4.08

57%

Strike defense

57%

5.29

TDs / 15 min

0.40

25%

Takedown defense

81%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muhammad MokaevManel Kape

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muhammad Mokaev(7 fights)Manel Kape(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.1|Blue +30.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muhammad MokaevTargetManel Kape

By target zone

28% acc · 37%

Head

41% acc · 80%

59% acc · 43%

Body

57% acc · 20%

29% acc · 20%

Leg

0% acc

By position

35% acc · 90%

Distance

42% acc · 100%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muhammad Mokaev rounds

even

Manel Kape rounds

Round 1Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:12

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control1:59

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 82

Sig Strikes

20 / 48

37.3%

Sig Str %

39.3%

47 / 102

Total Strikes

34 / 67

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:11

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Manel Kape	7 / 16	7 / 16	0 / 0
1	Muhammad Mokaev	10 / 29	10 / 29	0 / 2
2	Manel Kape	10 / 19	11 / 20	0 / 0
2	Muhammad Mokaev	10 / 32	10 / 32	1 / 2
3	Manel Kape	3 / 13	16 / 31	0 / 1
3	Muhammad Mokaev	10 / 21	27 / 41	2 / 4

Muhammad Mokaev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11