← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Mokaev won · SUB R3

Elo1528

Elo1491

Muhammad MokaevvsMalcolm GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Muhammad Mokaev won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:26

Style matchupMuhammad Mokaev: WrestlervsMalcolm Gordon: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev wins(79.3%)

Actual result: Muhammad Mokaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muhammad Mokaev at -1150 American odds

+$9 profit

$109 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Muhammad Mokaev threatens submissions; Malcolm Gordon has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Muhammad Mokaev has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Malcolm Gordon (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Muhammad Mokaev

Red Corner

Malcolm Gordon

Blue Corner

-1150

(92%)

Vegas Odds

+750

(12%)

1528

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muhammad MokaevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Charles Johnson · Jul 22

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 23

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Oct 23

vs Alex Perez · Mar 24

vs Manel Kape · Jul 24

latest

Malcolm GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Su Mudaerji · Nov 20

vs Francisco Figueiredo · Jul 21

KOvs Denys Bondar · Feb 22

KOvs Jake Hadley · Mar 23

SUBvs Jimmy Flick · Jan 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muhammad MokaevMetricMalcolm Gordon

1.61

Strikes / min

2.50

1.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.00

57%

Strike defense

43%

5.29

TDs / 15 min

1.72

25%

Takedown defense

26%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muhammad MokaevMalcolm Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muhammad Mokaev(7 fights)Malcolm Gordon(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.4|Blue -36.4

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muhammad MokaevTargetMalcolm Gordon

By target zone

59% acc · 62%

Head

43% acc · 88%

100% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 12%

Leg

0% acc

By position

50% acc · 43%

Distance

19% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

100% acc · 57%

Ground

100% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muhammad Mokaev rounds

even

Malcolm Gordon rounds

Round 1Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control4:20

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:06

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 3Malcolm Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control2:52

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 30

Sig Strikes

17 / 38

69.5%

Sig Str %

47.7%

119 / 130

Total Strikes

38 / 62

6 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

88.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

10:18

Ctrl Time

2:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Malcolm Gordon	3 / 13	6 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Muhammad Mokaev	12 / 16	52 / 57	2 / 3	0
2	Malcolm Gordon	6 / 15	14 / 26	0 / 0	1
2	Muhammad Mokaev	9 / 14	25 / 30	2 / 2	0
3	Malcolm Gordon	8 / 10	18 / 20	1 / 1	0
3	Muhammad Mokaev	0 / 0	42 / 43	2 / 2	1

Muhammad Mokaev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Malcolm Gordon

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7