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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Mokaev won · SUB R3

Elo1528

Elo1503

Muhammad MokaevvsJafel FilhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Muhammad Mokaev won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:32

Style matchupMuhammad Mokaev: WrestlervsJafel Filho: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev wins(82.2%)

Actual result: Muhammad Mokaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muhammad Mokaev at -850 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Muhammad Mokaev threatens submissions; Jafel Filho has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Jafel Filho has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Muhammad Mokaev

Red Corner

Jafel Filho

Blue Corner

-850

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+590

(14%)

1528

Elo

1503

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muhammad MokaevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Charles Johnson · Jul 22

SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Oct 22

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Oct 23

vs Alex Perez · Mar 24

vs Manel Kape · Jul 24

latest

Jafel Filho

oldest →

SUBvs Daniel Barez · Jul 23

SUBvs Ode Osbourne · Mar 24

vs Allan Nascimento · May 25

SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Oct 25

DECvs Cody Durden · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muhammad MokaevMetricJafel Filho

1.61

Strikes / min

1.78

1.35

Strikes absorbed / min

1.76

57%

Strike defense

50%

5.29

TDs / 15 min

2.40

25%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muhammad MokaevJafel Filho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muhammad Mokaev(7 fights)Jafel Filho(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.3|Blue -24.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muhammad MokaevTargetJafel Filho

By target zone

27% acc · 25%

Head

4% acc · 11%

80% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 22%

80% acc · 25%

Leg

50% acc · 67%

By position

48% acc · 75%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

80% acc · 25%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muhammad Mokaev rounds

even

Jafel Filho rounds

Round 1Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control3:40

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:20

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns3

Control3:15

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 30

Sig Strikes

9 / 37

55%

Sig Str %

15.3%

79 / 104

Total Strikes

54 / 87

4 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

36.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:15

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jafel Filho	2 / 10	12 / 21	0 / 0	1
1	Muhammad Mokaev	9 / 13	48 / 59	0 / 1	0
2	Jafel Filho	7 / 26	33 / 56	0 / 0	0
2	Muhammad Mokaev	7 / 17	19 / 29	1 / 2	0
3	Jafel Filho	0 / 1	9 / 10	0 / 0	1
3	Muhammad Mokaev	0 / 0	12 / 16	3 / 5	2

Muhammad Mokaev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Jafel Filho

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6