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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Muhammad Mokaev won · SUB R1
Elo1528
Muhammad Mokaev
Elo1458
Cody Durden editorial illustration

Muhammad MokaevvsCody DurdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Saturday, March 19, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Muhammad Mokaev won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:58

Style matchupMuhammad Mokaev: WrestlervsCody Durden: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Cody Durden wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Muhammad Mokaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Durden at +360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Muhammad Mokaev threatens submissions; Cody Durden has lost 56% of fights by sub.
  • Cody Durden has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cody Durden (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Muhammad Mokaev
Red Corner
VS
Cody Durden
Blue Corner
-490
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+360
(22%)
1528
Elo
1458
26
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muhammad MokaevW5 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Oct 22
W
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 23
W
SUBvs Tim Elliott · Oct 23
W
vs Alex Perez · Mar 24
W
vs Manel Kape · Jul 24
latest
Cody Durden
oldest →
L
KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25
L
SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Nov 25
L
vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26
W
DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26
L
SUBvs Alessandro Costa · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muhammad MokaevMetricCody Durden
1.61
Strikes / min
3.24
1.35
Strikes absorbed / min
3.94
57%
Strike defense
50%
5.29
TDs / 15 min
3.99
25%
Takedown defense
56%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1501Strikes1.6 vs 3.2Takedowns5.3 vs 4.6Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.80Form0.0 vs 0.4
Muhammad MokaevCody Durden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401465149015151540← oldermost recent →
Muhammad Mokaev(7 fights)Cody Durden(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +69.1|Blue -69.1
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Grappler Score
Red +49.3|Blue -49.3
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muhammad MokaevTargetCody Durden

By target zone

1
33% acc · 50%
Head
0
0% acc
1
50% acc · 50%
Body
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

2
50% acc · 100%
Distance
1
20% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Muhammad Mokaev rounds
0
even
0
Cody Durden rounds
Round 1Muhammad Mokaev edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:11
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
2 / 5
Sig Strikes
1 / 5
40%
Sig Str %
20%
2 / 5
Total Strikes
1 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:11
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cody Durden1 / 51 / 51 / 10
1Muhammad Mokaev2 / 52 / 50 / 01

Muhammad Mokaev

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7

Cody Durden

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights17