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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Muhammad Mokaev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1528

Elo1507

Muhammad MokaevvsCharles JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Muhammad Mokaev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMuhammad Mokaev: WrestlervsCharles Johnson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Muhammad Mokaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muhammad Mokaev at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Charles Johnson has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Johnson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Muhammad Mokaev

Red Corner

Charles Johnson

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1528

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Muhammad MokaevW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Oct 22

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 23

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Oct 23

vs Alex Perez · Mar 24

vs Manel Kape · Jul 24

latest

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Muhammad MokaevMetricCharles Johnson

1.61

Strikes / min

4.77

1.35

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

57%

Strike defense

55%

5.29

TDs / 15 min

0.51

25%

Takedown defense

69%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Muhammad MokaevCharles Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Muhammad Mokaev(7 fights)Charles Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.9|Blue -20.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Muhammad MokaevTargetCharles Johnson

By target zone

29% acc · 42%

Head

60% acc · 25%

43% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 50%

80% acc · 33%

Leg

38% acc · 25%

By position

38% acc · 83%

Distance

41% acc · 58%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Muhammad Mokaev rounds

even

Charles Johnson rounds

Round 1Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns4

Control4:08

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control3:37

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Muhammad Mokaev edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns5

Control3:59

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 29

Sig Strikes

12 / 22

37.7%

Sig Str %

48.7%

32 / 54

Total Strikes

71 / 84

12 / 26

TDs

0 / 0

48.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:44

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Charles Johnson	1 / 4	22 / 26	0 / 0
1	Muhammad Mokaev	6 / 12	13 / 22	4 / 11
2	Charles Johnson	5 / 9	28 / 34	0 / 0
2	Muhammad Mokaev	5 / 13	14 / 24	3 / 5
3	Charles Johnson	6 / 9	21 / 24	0 / 0
3	Muhammad Mokaev	1 / 4	5 / 8	5 / 10

Muhammad Mokaev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15