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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Movsar Evloev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1536

Elo1420

Movsar EvloevvsMike GrundyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Movsar Evloev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMovsar Evloev: WrestlervsMike Grundy: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Movsar Evloev wins(86.5%)

Actual result: Movsar Evloev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Movsar Evloev at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Movsar Evloev enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Movsar Evloev

Red Corner

Mike Grundy

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+161

(38%)

1536

Elo

1420

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Movsar EvloevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 22

vs Diego Lopes · May 23

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Dec 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Mar 26

latest

Mike GrundyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nad Narimani · Mar 19

vs Lando Vannata · May 21

SUBvs Makwan Amirkhani · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Movsar EvloevMetricMike Grundy

3.91

Strikes / min

2.09

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

61%

Strike defense

56%

4.78

TDs / 15 min

4.06

61%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 3.47 — meaningful gap-2.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Movsar EvloevMike Grundy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Movsar Evloev(10 fights)Mike Grundy(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +116.5|Blue -116.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -224.0|Blue +224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Movsar EvloevTargetMike Grundy

By target zone

44% acc · 67%

Head

21% acc · 55%

93% acc · 16%

Body

75% acc · 45%

81% acc · 16%

Leg

0% acc

By position

51% acc · 91%

Distance

28% acc · 90%

88% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Movsar Evloev rounds

even

Mike Grundy rounds

Round 1Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 2Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:11

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 3Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:37

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 150

Sig Strikes

20 / 66

52.7%

Sig Str %

29%

96 / 173

Total Strikes

25 / 80

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 15

—

TD %

42%

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

2:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Grundy	3 / 16	3 / 20	3 / 5	1
1	Movsar Evloev	19 / 34	25 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Mike Grundy	6 / 16	8 / 21	1 / 6	0
2	Movsar Evloev	31 / 55	35 / 59	0 / 0	0
3	Mike Grundy	11 / 34	14 / 39	2 / 4	0
3	Movsar Evloev	29 / 61	36 / 70	0 / 0	0

Movsar Evloev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Mike Grundy

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4