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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Movsar Evloev won · M-DEC R5

Elo1536

Elo1534

Movsar EvloevvsLerone MurphyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Saturday, March 21, 2026London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Movsar Evloev won

M-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMovsar Evloev: WrestlervsLerone Murphy: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Movsar Evloev wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Movsar Evloev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Movsar Evloev at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Movsar Evloev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Lerone Murphy enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Movsar Evloev has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Movsar Evloev

Red Corner

Lerone Murphy

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+198

(34%)

1536

Elo

1534

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Movsar EvloevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Jun 21

vs Dan Ige · Jun 22

vs Diego Lopes · May 23

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Dec 24

latest

Lerone MurphyW5 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Culibao · Jul 23

vs Edson Barboza · May 24

vs Dan Ige · Oct 24

vs Josh Emmett · Apr 25

KOvs Aaron Pico · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Movsar EvloevMetricLerone Murphy

3.91

Strikes / min

4.34

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

61%

Strike defense

60%

4.78

TDs / 15 min

1.20

61%

Takedown defense

44%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11evenly matched on net striking+1.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Movsar EvloevLerone Murphy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Movsar Evloev(10 fights)Lerone Murphy(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Movsar EvloevTargetLerone Murphy

By target zone

35% acc · 55%

Head

26% acc · 51%

75% acc · 38%

Body

63% acc · 27%

55% acc · 7%

Leg

77% acc · 22%

By position

45% acc · 93%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

0% acc

56% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Movsar Evloev rounds

even

Lerone Murphy rounds

Round 1Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:23

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns3

Control1:19

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns5

Control2:12

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 189

Sig Strikes

89 / 239

44.6%

Sig Str %

36.8%

124 / 234

Total Strikes

89 / 239

9 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

91.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:54

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lerone Murphy	14 / 49	14 / 49	0 / 0
1	Movsar Evloev	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 0
2	Lerone Murphy	24 / 57	24 / 57	0 / 0
2	Movsar Evloev	17 / 37	17 / 37	0 / 0
3	Lerone Murphy	23 / 48	23 / 48	0 / 0
3	Movsar Evloev	25 / 50	26 / 52	1 / 1
4	Lerone Murphy	16 / 39	16 / 39	0 / 0
4	Movsar Evloev	21 / 35	30 / 45	3 / 4
5	Movsar Evloev	12 / 36	40 / 69	5 / 5
5	Lerone Murphy	12 / 46	12 / 46	0 / 0

Movsar Evloev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Lerone Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10