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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Movsar Evloev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1536

Elo1473

Movsar EvloevvsHakeem DawoduUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Movsar Evloev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMovsar Evloev: WrestlervsHakeem Dawodu: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Movsar Evloev wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Movsar Evloev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Movsar Evloev at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Movsar Evloev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Movsar Evloev

Red Corner

Hakeem Dawodu

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1536

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Movsar EvloevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 22

vs Diego Lopes · May 23

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Dec 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Mar 26

latest

Hakeem DawoduL2 streak

oldest →

vs Julio Arce · Nov 19

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Sep 20

vs Michael Trizano · Feb 22

vs Julian Erosa · Sep 22

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Movsar EvloevMetricHakeem Dawodu

3.91

Strikes / min

5.45

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.37

61%

Strike defense

56%

4.78

TDs / 15 min

0.00

61%

Takedown defense

65%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11evenly matched on net striking+2.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Movsar EvloevHakeem Dawodu

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Movsar Evloev(10 fights)Hakeem Dawodu(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +63.1|Blue -63.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Movsar EvloevTargetHakeem Dawodu

By target zone

45% acc · 88%

Head

37% acc · 67%

75% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 18%

67% acc · 5%

Leg

75% acc · 15%

By position

33% acc · 50%

Distance

42% acc · 95%

56% acc · 12%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

89% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Movsar Evloev rounds

even

Hakeem Dawodu rounds

Round 1Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns4

Control3:36

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control4:34

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control0:45

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 90

Sig Strikes

39 / 92

68%

Sig Str %

35.7%

193 / 266

Total Strikes

60 / 129

9 / 13

TDs

0 / 1

72%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:55

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hakeem Dawodu	7 / 18	15 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Movsar Evloev	11 / 13	69 / 74	4 / 6	1
2	Hakeem Dawodu	1 / 4	13 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Movsar Evloev	14 / 15	91 / 109	3 / 3	1
3	Hakeem Dawodu	31 / 70	32 / 75	0 / 1	0
3	Movsar Evloev	17 / 62	33 / 83	2 / 4	0

Movsar Evloev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Hakeem Dawodu

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10