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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Movsar Evloev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1536

Elo1549

Movsar EvloevvsDiego LopesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · Saturday, May 6, 2023Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Movsar Evloev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMovsar Evloev: WrestlervsDiego Lopes: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Movsar Evloev wins(86.8%)

Actual result: Movsar Evloev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Movsar Evloev at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Movsar Evloev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Movsar Evloev has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Movsar Evloev

Red Corner

Diego Lopes

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+660

(13%)

1536

Elo

1549

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Movsar EvloevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Jun 21

vs Dan Ige · Jun 22

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Dec 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Mar 26

latest

Diego Lopes

oldest →

vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25

KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Movsar EvloevMetricDiego Lopes

3.91

Strikes / min

3.83

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

4.56

61%

Strike defense

45%

4.78

TDs / 15 min

0.88

61%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap-0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Movsar EvloevDiego Lopes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Movsar Evloev(10 fights)Diego Lopes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.2|Blue +13.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Movsar EvloevTargetDiego Lopes

By target zone

66% acc · 86%

Head

51% acc · 78%

100% acc · 3%

Body

50% acc · 11%

90% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

56% acc · 51%

Distance

49% acc · 73%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

86% acc · 36%

Ground

64% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Movsar Evloev rounds

even

Diego Lopes rounds

Round 1Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:34

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control2:20

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns2

Control2:36

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 129

Sig Strikes

37 / 69

70.3%

Sig Str %

52.7%

183 / 228

Total Strikes

48 / 82

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:30

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Lopes	17 / 27	28 / 39	0 / 0	1
1	Movsar Evloev	16 / 22	65 / 74	1 / 2	0
2	Diego Lopes	10 / 24	10 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Movsar Evloev	39 / 66	79 / 107	1 / 1	0
3	Diego Lopes	10 / 18	10 / 18	0 / 0	3
3	Movsar Evloev	33 / 41	39 / 47	2 / 4	0

Movsar Evloev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Diego Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9