Featherweight

3 Rounds

Morgan Charriere won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1502

Elo1482

Morgan CharrierevsGabriel MirandaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Saturday, September 28, 2024Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Morgan Charriere won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:27

Style matchupMorgan Charriere: WrestlervsGabriel Miranda: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Morgan Charriere wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Morgan Charriere wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Morgan Charriere at -520 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Morgan Charriere is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Gabriel Miranda has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Morgan Charriere has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Morgan Charriere has 83pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Morgan Charriere

Red Corner

Gabriel Miranda

Blue Corner

-520

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+390

(20%)

1502

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Morgan Charriere

oldest →

KOvs Manolo Zecchini · Sep 23

vs Chepe Mariscal · Apr 24

vs Nathaniel Wood · Mar 25

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jul 25

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 25

latest

Gabriel Miranda

oldest →

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 22

SUBvs Shane Young · Sep 23

KOvs Jamall Emmers · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Morgan CharriereMetricGabriel Miranda

4.02

Strikes / min

3.23

4.51

Strikes absorbed / min

6.01

53%

Strike defense

37%

2.06

TDs / 15 min

4.75

83%

Takedown defense

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 2.29 — meaningful gap-2.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Morgan CharriereGabriel Miranda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Morgan Charriere(6 fights)Gabriel Miranda(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.4|Blue -20.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -210.0|Blue +210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Morgan CharriereTargetGabriel Miranda

By target zone

65% acc · 79%

Head

30% acc · 64%

100% acc · 5%

Body

27% acc · 27%

75% acc · 16%

Leg

25% acc · 9%

By position

59% acc · 53%

Distance

26% acc · 82%

67% acc · 11%

Clinch

50% acc · 18%

88% acc · 37%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Morgan Charriere rounds

even

Gabriel Miranda rounds

Round 1Morgan Charriere edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control2:10

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 2Morgan Charriere edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 28

Sig Strikes

11 / 38

70.5%

Sig Str %

25%

28 / 37

Total Strikes

17 / 45

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 4

100%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

2:12

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gabriel Miranda	10 / 33	16 / 40	1 / 4
1	Morgan Charriere	16 / 24	25 / 33	2 / 2
2	Gabriel Miranda	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0
2	Morgan Charriere	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 0

Morgan Charriere

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Gabriel Miranda

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4