Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chepe Mariscal won · S-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1527

Morgan CharrierevsChepe MariscalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Saturday, April 6, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chepe Mariscal won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMorgan Charriere: WrestlervsChepe Mariscal: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chepe Mariscal wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Chepe Mariscal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chepe Mariscal at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Morgan Charriere has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Morgan Charriere

Red Corner

Chepe Mariscal

Blue Corner

-142

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1502

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Morgan Charriere

oldest →

KOvs Manolo Zecchini · Sep 23

KOvs Gabriel Miranda · Sep 24

vs Nathaniel Wood · Mar 25

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jul 25

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 25

latest

Chepe Mariscal

oldest →

vs Trevor Peek · Jun 23

KOvs Jack Jenkins · Sep 23

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 24

vs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 25

vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Morgan CharriereMetricChepe Mariscal

4.02

Strikes / min

4.14

4.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

53%

Strike defense

52%

2.06

TDs / 15 min

2.34

83%

Takedown defense

59%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49Δ 1.97 — meaningful gap+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Morgan CharriereChepe Mariscal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Morgan Charriere(6 fights)Chepe Mariscal(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.9|Blue +24.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Morgan CharriereTargetChepe Mariscal

By target zone

36% acc · 61%

Head

45% acc · 59%

94% acc · 33%

Body

53% acc · 14%

75% acc · 6%

Leg

79% acc · 27%

By position

46% acc · 92%

Distance

45% acc · 70%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

71% acc · 17%

Ground

90% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Morgan Charriere rounds

even

Chepe Mariscal rounds

Round 1Chepe Mariscal edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:57

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 2Morgan Charriere edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control0:24

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Chepe Mariscal edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:21

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 104

Sig Strikes

71 / 137

42%

Sig Str %

52.7%

75 / 139

Total Strikes

121 / 199

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 8

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:42

Ctrl Time

3:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chepe Mariscal	16 / 29	25 / 44	1 / 6	0
1	Morgan Charriere	10 / 24	19 / 37	0 / 1	1
2	Chepe Mariscal	32 / 67	32 / 67	0 / 2	0
2	Morgan Charriere	33 / 61	35 / 63	1 / 3	0
3	Chepe Mariscal	23 / 41	64 / 88	0 / 0	0
3	Morgan Charriere	6 / 19	21 / 39	1 / 1	0

Morgan Charriere

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Chepe Mariscal

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6