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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Montel Jackson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1466

Montel JacksonvsJP BuysUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Saturday, September 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Montel Jackson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMontel Jackson: WrestlervsJP Buys: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Montel Jackson wins(76.3%)

Actual result: Montel Jackson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Montel Jackson at -630 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

JP Buys enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Montel Jackson has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Montel Jackson has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Montel Jackson (53.5%).
Montel Jackson has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Montel Jackson

Red Corner

JP Buys

Blue Corner

-630

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1499

Elo

1466

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'5"

190.5 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Montel JacksonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rani Yahya · Apr 23

KOvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 24

vs Daniel Marcos · May 25

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Oct 25

DECvs Raoni Barcelos · Apr 26

latest

JP BuysL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bruno Silva · Mar 21

KOvs Cody Durden · Jun 22

KOvs Marcus McGhee · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Montel JacksonMetricJP Buys

3.02

Strikes / min

1.88

1.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

60%

Strike defense

40%

2.71

TDs / 15 min

1.55

67%

Takedown defense

25%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

2.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap-1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Montel JacksonJP Buys

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Montel Jackson(10 fights)JP Buys(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.0|Blue -33.0

Recent Form

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Montel JacksonTargetJP Buys

By target zone

50% acc · 72%

Head

30% acc · 38%

100% acc · 28%

Body

31% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

65% acc · 44%

Distance

27% acc · 75%

75% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

44% acc · 32%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Montel Jackson rounds

even

JP Buys rounds

Round 1Montel Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:36

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 2Montel Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:07

Knockdowns2

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Montel Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control3:20

Knockdowns2

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 43

Sig Strikes

8 / 24

58.7%

Sig Str %

33.3%

91 / 117

Total Strikes

39 / 60

4 / 5

TDs

1 / 7

83%

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

10:03

Ctrl Time

1:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	JP Buys	3 / 8	9 / 15	1 / 4	2
1	Montel Jackson	8 / 12	27 / 34	2 / 2	1
2	JP Buys	2 / 6	14 / 20	0 / 1	1
2	Montel Jackson	7 / 12	21 / 30	2 / 3	0
3	JP Buys	3 / 10	16 / 25	0 / 2	0
3	Montel Jackson	10 / 19	43 / 53	0 / 0	0

Montel Jackson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13

JP Buys

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4