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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Montel Jackson won · U-DEC R3
Elo1499
Montel Jackson
Elo1425
Felipe Colares

Montel JacksonvsFelipe ColaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, January 25, 2020Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Montel Jackson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Montel Jackson wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Montel Jackson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Montel Jackson at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Montel Jackson has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Montel Jackson has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Montel Jackson (53.5%).
  • Montel Jackson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Montel Jackson
Red Corner
VS
Felipe Colares
Blue Corner
-700
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+500
(17%)
1499
Elo
1425
34
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
190.5 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Montel JacksonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Rani Yahya · Apr 23
W
KOvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 24
W
vs Daniel Marcos · May 25
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Oct 25
L
DECvs Raoni Barcelos · Apr 26
latest
Felipe ColaresL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Geraldo de Freitas · Feb 19
W
vs Domingo Pilarte · Jul 19
W
vs Luke Sanders · May 21
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Oct 21
L
KOvs Chase Hooper · May 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Montel JacksonMetricFelipe Colares
3.02
Strikes / min
2.17
1.40
Strikes absorbed / min
4.65
60%
Strike defense
36%
2.71
TDs / 15 min
1.88
67%
Takedown defense
43%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 4.10 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1501Takedowns2.7 vs 2.5Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.00Form0.6 vs 0.2
Montel JacksonFelipe Colares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Montel Jackson(10 fights)Felipe Colares(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +74.0|Blue -74.0
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Montel JacksonTargetFelipe Colares

By target zone

64
70% acc · 85%
Head
2
12% acc · 29%
9
90% acc · 12%
Body
4
50% acc · 57%
2
100% acc · 3%
Leg
1
33% acc · 14%

By position

32
68% acc · 43%
Distance
6
26% acc · 86%
43
78% acc · 57%
Clinch
1
20% acc · 14%
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Montel Jackson rounds
0
even
0
Felipe Colares rounds
Round 1Montel Jackson edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns4
Control3:28
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 2Montel Jackson edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns4
Control3:49
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Montel Jackson edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns3
Control3:23
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:49Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
75 / 103
Sig Strikes
7 / 28
69.3%
Sig Str %
26%
96 / 130
Total Strikes
8 / 31
11 / 15
TDs
1 / 8
73.7%
TD %
8.3%
0
Sub Att
3
0
Rev
0
10:40
Ctrl Time
1:22

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Felipe Colares3 / 134 / 160 / 20
1Montel Jackson41 / 5447 / 614 / 60
2Felipe Colares2 / 62 / 60 / 22
2Montel Jackson24 / 3229 / 404 / 50
3Felipe Colares2 / 92 / 91 / 41
3Montel Jackson10 / 1720 / 293 / 40

Montel Jackson

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights13

Felipe Colares

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6