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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Montel Jackson won · U-DEC R3
Elo1499
Montel Jackson
Elo1526
Daniel Marcos

Montel JacksonvsDaniel MarcosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 3, 2025Des Moines, Iowa, USA

Official fight result

Montel Jackson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMontel Jackson: WrestlervsDaniel Marcos: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Montel Jackson wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Montel Jackson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Montel Jackson at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daniel Marcos enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Daniel Marcos has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Montel Jackson (53.5%).
  • Montel Jackson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Montel Jackson
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Marcos
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+188
(35%)
1499
Elo
1526
34
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'7"
190.5 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Montel JacksonL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Julio Arce · Nov 22
W
KOvs Rani Yahya · Apr 23
W
KOvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 24
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Oct 25
L
DECvs Raoni Barcelos · Apr 26
latest
Daniel MarcosW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 23
W
vs Davey Grant · Jul 23
W
vs John Castaneda · Jun 24
W
vs Adrian Yanez · Dec 24
W
SUBvs Miles Johns · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Montel JacksonMetricDaniel Marcos
3.02
Strikes / min
4.90
1.40
Strikes absorbed / min
3.79
60%
Strike defense
61%
2.71
TDs / 15 min
1.35
67%
Takedown defense
85%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1592 vs 1564Strikes3.1 vs 4.9Takedowns3.0 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.10Form1.0 vs 1.0
Montel JacksonDaniel Marcos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Montel Jackson(10 fights)Daniel Marcos(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -26.6|Blue +26.6
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Montel JacksonTargetDaniel Marcos

By target zone

25
43% acc · 83%
Head
5
28% acc · 29%
1
33% acc · 3%
Body
5
71% acc · 29%
4
80% acc · 13%
Leg
7
100% acc · 41%

By position

27
44% acc · 90%
Distance
13
48% acc · 76%
3
75% acc · 10%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 18%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Montel Jackson rounds
1
even
0
Daniel Marcos rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control2:07
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:26Control
Round 2Montel Jackson edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:26
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:55Control
Round 3Montel Jackson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:04
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
30 / 66
Sig Strikes
17 / 32
42.7%
Sig Str %
53.7%
67 / 106
Total Strikes
24 / 43
2 / 8
TDs
3 / 7
19.3%
TD %
58.3%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:37
Ctrl Time
5:45

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Marcos4 / 77 / 111 / 10
1Montel Jackson4 / 1222 / 311 / 40
2Daniel Marcos7 / 127 / 121 / 40
2Montel Jackson15 / 2822 / 370 / 10
3Daniel Marcos6 / 1310 / 201 / 20
3Montel Jackson11 / 2623 / 381 / 31

Montel Jackson

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights13

Daniel Marcos

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6