← All fights/Event page

Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Montana De La Rosa won · SUB R3

Elo1499

Elo1392

Montana De La RosavsRachael OstovichUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Friday, July 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Montana De La Rosa won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:21

Style matchupMontana De La Rosa: Well-roundedvsRachael Ostovich: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Montana De La Rosa wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Montana De La Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Montana De La Rosa at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Montana De La Rosa threatens submissions; Rachael Ostovich has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Rachael Ostovich has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Montana De La Rosa has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Montana De La Rosa

Red Corner

Rachael Ostovich

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1499

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'3"

172.72 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Montana De La Rosa

oldest →

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Jun 21

vs Maycee Barber · Apr 22

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 23

vs JJ Aldrich · Oct 23

vs Andrea Lee · Jun 24

latest

Rachael OstovichL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Karine Gevorgyan · Dec 17

SUBvs Paige VanZant · Jan 19

KOvs Gina Mazany · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Montana De La RosaMetricRachael Ostovich

2.90

Strikes / min

2.54

3.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

45%

Strike defense

57%

1.85

TDs / 15 min

2.03

68%

Takedown defense

66%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking-1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Montana De La RosaRachael Ostovich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Montana De La Rosa(10 fights)Rachael Ostovich(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +107.0|Blue -107.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Montana De La RosaTargetRachael Ostovich

By target zone

34% acc · 82%

Head

33% acc · 57%

58% acc · 13%

Body

65% acc · 38%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

50% acc · 5%

By position

33% acc · 70%

Distance

39% acc · 90%

22% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

75% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Montana De La Rosa rounds

even

Rachael Ostovich rounds

Round 1Montana De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Montana De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:08

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Montana De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control3:06

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 149

Sig Strikes

40 / 96

41.3%

Sig Str %

48.7%

86 / 179

Total Strikes

48 / 106

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:14

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rachael Ostovich	16 / 45	16 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Montana De La Rosa	21 / 76	21 / 76	0 / 0	0
2	Rachael Ostovich	17 / 41	23 / 49	0 / 0	0
2	Montana De La Rosa	17 / 41	29 / 53	0 / 3	0
3	Rachael Ostovich	7 / 10	9 / 12	0 / 0	1
3	Montana De La Rosa	18 / 32	36 / 50	0 / 3	1

Montana De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Rachael Ostovich

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4