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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Montana De La Rosa won · SUB R2

Elo1499

Elo1377

Montana De La RosavsNadia KassemUFC Prediction Result

UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Saturday, February 9, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Montana De La Rosa won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:37

Model Prediction: Nadia Kassem wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Montana De La Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nadia Kassem at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Montana De La Rosa threatens submissions; Nadia Kassem has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Montana De La Rosa has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nadia Kassem (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Montana De La Rosa

Red Corner

Nadia Kassem

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1499

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Montana De La Rosa

oldest →

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Jun 21

vs Maycee Barber · Apr 22

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 23

vs JJ Aldrich · Oct 23

vs Andrea Lee · Jun 24

latest

Nadia Kassem

oldest →

vs Alex Chambers · Nov 17

KOvs Ji Yeon Kim · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Montana De La RosaMetricNadia Kassem

2.90

Strikes / min

3.13

3.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

45%

Strike defense

48%

1.85

TDs / 15 min

0.46

68%

Takedown defense

40%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

2.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking-1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Montana De La RosaNadia Kassem

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Montana De La Rosa(10 fights)Nadia Kassem(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.3|Blue -122.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -230.0|Blue +230.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Montana De La RosaTargetNadia Kassem

By target zone

59% acc · 95%

Head

33% acc · 20%

100% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 60%

By position

37% acc · 33%

Distance

75% acc · 60%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

88% acc · 67%

Ground

50% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Montana De La Rosa rounds

even

Nadia Kassem rounds

Round 1Montana De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control4:40

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Montana De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:41

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 35

Sig Strikes

5 / 7

59.5%

Sig Str %

70.5%

79 / 101

Total Strikes

15 / 20

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:21

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nadia Kassem	3 / 4	11 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Montana De La Rosa	10 / 16	54 / 67	1 / 1	0
2	Nadia Kassem	2 / 3	4 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Montana De La Rosa	11 / 19	25 / 34	1 / 2	3

Montana De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Nadia Kassem

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3