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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Montana De La Rosa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1389

Montana De La RosavsMara Romero BorellaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · Saturday, February 15, 2020Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Montana De La Rosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMontana De La Rosa: Well-roundedvsMara Romero Borella: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Montana De La Rosa wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Montana De La Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Montana De La Rosa at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mara Romero Borella enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Montana De La Rosa threatens submissions; Mara Romero Borella has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Mara Romero Borella has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Montana De La Rosa

Red Corner

Mara Romero Borella

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1499

Elo

1389

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Montana De La Rosa

oldest →

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Jun 21

vs Maycee Barber · Apr 22

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 23

vs JJ Aldrich · Oct 23

vs Andrea Lee · Jun 24

latest

Mara Romero BorellaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 18

vs Taila Santos · Feb 19

KOvs Lauren Murphy · Aug 19

SUBvs Cortney Casey · May 20

SUBvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Montana De La RosaMetricMara Romero Borella

2.90

Strikes / min

2.54

3.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

45%

Strike defense

71%

1.85

TDs / 15 min

1.83

68%

Takedown defense

66%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Montana De La RosaMara Romero Borella

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Montana De La Rosa(10 fights)Mara Romero Borella(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +110.1|Blue -110.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Montana De La RosaTargetMara Romero Borella

By target zone

29% acc · 56%

Head

34% acc · 65%

80% acc · 30%

Body

75% acc · 13%

67% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

27% acc · 52%

Distance

34% acc · 65%

67% acc · 15%

Clinch

83% acc · 22%

90% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Montana De La Rosa rounds

even

Mara Romero Borella rounds

Round 1Mara Romero Borella edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:53

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 2Montana De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Montana De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control2:37

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 67

Sig Strikes

23 / 53

41.7%

Sig Str %

43.7%

74 / 128

Total Strikes

64 / 99

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:30

Ctrl Time

1:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mara Romero Borella	11 / 20	23 / 33	1 / 1	0
1	Montana De La Rosa	8 / 18	16 / 27	0 / 2	0
2	Mara Romero Borella	5 / 11	14 / 20	0 / 1	0
2	Montana De La Rosa	7 / 15	23 / 40	1 / 1	0
3	Mara Romero Borella	7 / 22	27 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Montana De La Rosa	12 / 34	35 / 61	0 / 0	1

Montana De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Mara Romero Borella

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8