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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

JJ Aldrich won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1522

Montana De La RosavsJJ AldrichUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Saturday, October 7, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

JJ Aldrich won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMontana De La Rosa: Well-roundedvsJJ Aldrich: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: JJ Aldrich wins(50.3%)

Actual result: JJ Aldrich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

JJ Aldrich has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors JJ Aldrich (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Montana De La Rosa

Red Corner

JJ Aldrich

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1499

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Montana De La Rosa

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Sep 20

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Jun 21

vs Maycee Barber · Apr 22

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 23

vs Andrea Lee · Jun 24

latest

JJ AldrichW2 streak

oldest →

vs Ariane da Silva · Mar 23

KOvs Liang Na · Aug 23

vs Veronica Hardy · May 24

vs Andrea Lee · Mar 25

DECvs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Montana De La RosaMetricJJ Aldrich

2.90

Strikes / min

3.92

3.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

45%

Strike defense

61%

1.85

TDs / 15 min

0.70

68%

Takedown defense

67%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Montana De La RosaJJ Aldrich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Montana De La Rosa(10 fights)JJ Aldrich(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.8|Blue +22.8

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Montana De La RosaTargetJJ Aldrich

By target zone

24% acc · 61%

Head

45% acc · 85%

81% acc · 19%

Body

82% acc · 14%

81% acc · 19%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

32% acc · 88%

Distance

47% acc · 89%

40% acc · 12%

Clinch

64% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Montana De La Rosa rounds

even

JJ Aldrich rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 204

Sig Strikes

65 / 135

32.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

70 / 209

Total Strikes

66 / 136

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	JJ Aldrich	19 / 35	19 / 35	0 / 0
1	Montana De La Rosa	19 / 55	20 / 57	0 / 0
2	JJ Aldrich	20 / 44	20 / 44	0 / 0
2	Montana De La Rosa	21 / 63	23 / 66	0 / 0
3	JJ Aldrich	26 / 56	27 / 57	0 / 0
3	Montana De La Rosa	27 / 86	27 / 86	0 / 1

Montana De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

JJ Aldrich

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16