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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Julija Stoliarenko won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1487

Molly McCannvsJulija StoliarenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Julija Stoliarenko won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:55

Model Prediction: Molly McCann wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Julija Stoliarenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Molly McCann at -205 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julija Stoliarenko enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Julija Stoliarenko threatens submissions; Molly McCann has lost 57% of fights by sub.
Molly McCann has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Julija Stoliarenko has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Julija Stoliarenko has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Molly McCann

Red Corner

Julija Stoliarenko

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1491

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'7"

157.48 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Molly McCannL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Hannah Goldy · Jul 22

SUBvs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 22

SUBvs Diana Belbita · Feb 24

vs Bruna Brasil · Jul 24

SUBvs Alexia Thainara · Mar 25

latest

Julija StoliarenkoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alexis Davis · Feb 22

SUBvs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jul 22

KOvs Chelsea Chandler · Oct 22

KOvs Luana Carolina · Feb 24

vs Gabriella Fernandes · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Molly McCannMetricJulija Stoliarenko

5.28

Strikes / min

2.74

4.65

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

62%

Strike defense

46%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

0.78

38%

Takedown defense

54%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.63Δ 2.34 — meaningful gap-1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Molly McCannJulija Stoliarenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Molly McCann(10 fights)Julija Stoliarenko(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Molly McCannTargetJulija Stoliarenko

By target zone

9% acc · 17%

Head

20% acc · 44%

100% acc · 67%

Body

67% acc · 22%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

50% acc · 33%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Molly McCann rounds

even

Julija Stoliarenko rounds

Round 1Julija Stoliarenko edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:07

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 16

Sig Strikes

9 / 29

37%

Sig Str %

31%

6 / 16

Total Strikes

9 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julija Stoliarenko	9 / 29	9 / 29	1 / 1	1
1	Molly McCann	6 / 16	6 / 16	0 / 0	0

Molly McCann

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights14

Julija Stoliarenko

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9