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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Bruna Brasil won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1463

Molly McCannvsBruna BrasilUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Bruna Brasil won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMolly McCann: Pressure fightervsBruna Brasil: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Molly McCann wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Bruna Brasil wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Molly McCann at -345 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bruna Brasil enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Molly McCann has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bruna Brasil has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Molly McCann

Red Corner

Bruna Brasil

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1491

Elo

1463

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

157.48 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Molly McCann

oldest →

KOvs Hannah Goldy · Jul 22

SUBvs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 22

SUBvs Julija Stoliarenko · Jul 23

SUBvs Diana Belbita · Feb 24

SUBvs Alexia Thainara · Mar 25

latest

Bruna BrasilL4 streak

oldest →

vs Shauna Bannon · Jul 23

vs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 24

vs Wang Cong · Feb 25

vs Ketlen Souza · Feb 26

vs Alexia Thainara · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Molly McCannMetricBruna Brasil

5.28

Strikes / min

2.56

4.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.75

62%

Strike defense

52%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

1.23

38%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.63Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap-1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Molly McCannBruna Brasil

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Molly McCann(10 fights)Bruna Brasil(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.6|Blue -28.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Molly McCannTargetBruna Brasil

By target zone

50% acc · 59%

Head

43% acc · 45%

73% acc · 34%

Body

92% acc · 50%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

50% acc · 5%

By position

54% acc · 88%

Distance

57% acc · 73%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

89% acc · 18%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

44% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Molly McCann rounds

even

Bruna Brasil rounds

Round 1Bruna Brasil edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:55

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:05

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 3Bruna Brasil edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:31

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 56

Sig Strikes

44 / 74

58.3%

Sig Str %

56.3%

57 / 84

Total Strikes

63 / 99

2 / 7

TDs

3 / 3

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:31

Ctrl Time

5:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bruna Brasil	25 / 38	31 / 44	0 / 0
1	Molly McCann	10 / 21	10 / 22	1 / 4
2	Bruna Brasil	11 / 19	21 / 33	1 / 1
2	Molly McCann	11 / 20	30 / 40	1 / 2
3	Bruna Brasil	8 / 17	11 / 22	2 / 2
3	Molly McCann	11 / 15	17 / 22	0 / 1

Molly McCann

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights14

Bruna Brasil

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7