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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Alexia Thainara won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1544

Molly McCannvsAlexia ThainaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Alexia Thainara won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:32

Style matchupMolly McCann: Pressure fightervsAlexia Thainara: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexia Thainara wins(75.4%)

Actual result: Alexia Thainara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexia Thainara at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexia Thainara has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Alexia Thainara has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Molly McCann

Red Corner

Alexia Thainara

Blue Corner

+188

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1491

Elo

1544

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

157.48 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Molly McCann

oldest →

KOvs Hannah Goldy · Jul 22

SUBvs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 22

SUBvs Julija Stoliarenko · Jul 23

SUBvs Diana Belbita · Feb 24

vs Bruna Brasil · Jul 24

latest

Alexia ThainaraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Loma Lookboonmee · Sep 25

vs Bruna Brasil · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Molly McCannMetricAlexia Thainara

5.28

Strikes / min

4.62

4.65

Strikes absorbed / min

2.46

62%

Strike defense

59%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

4.54

38%

Takedown defense

100%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.63Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap+2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Molly McCannAlexia Thainara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Molly McCann(10 fights)Alexia Thainara(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.9|Blue +52.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Molly McCannTargetAlexia Thainara

By target zone

35% acc · 67%

Head

54% acc · 64%

67% acc · 22%

Body

50% acc · 9%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

50% acc · 27%

By position

36% acc · 44%

Distance

43% acc · 55%

Clinch

50% acc · 56%

Ground

71% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Molly McCann rounds

even

Alexia Thainara rounds

Round 1Alexia Thainara edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 21

Sig Strikes

11 / 21

42%

Sig Str %

52%

14 / 28

Total Strikes

17 / 32

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexia Thainara	11 / 21	17 / 32	1 / 1	2
1	Molly McCann	9 / 21	14 / 28	0 / 0	0

Molly McCann

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights14

Alexia Thainara

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3