Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mohammed Usman won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1506

Elo1492

Mohammed UsmanvsZac PaugaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · Saturday, August 6, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mohammed Usman won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:36

Style matchupMohammed Usman: Well-roundedvsZac Pauga: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Zac Pauga wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Mohammed Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zac Pauga at -280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zac Pauga has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mohammed Usman

Red Corner

Zac Pauga

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1506

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mohammed Usman

oldest →

vs Junior Tafa · Apr 23

vs Jake Collier · Sep 23

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 24

vs Thomas Petersen · Jul 24

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Jun 25

latest

Zac PaugaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Wright · Feb 23

vs Modestas Bukauskas · Jun 23

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mohammed UsmanMetricZac Pauga

3.85

Strikes / min

4.46

4.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.73

51%

Strike defense

58%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.38

66%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.42Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap+1.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mohammed UsmanZac Pauga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mohammed Usman(6 fights)Zac Pauga(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.2|Blue -14.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mohammed UsmanTargetZac Pauga

By target zone

28% acc · 92%

Head

48% acc · 44%

100% acc · 8%

Body

90% acc · 28%

Leg

82% acc · 28%

By position

26% acc · 75%

Distance

63% acc · 97%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

67% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mohammed Usman rounds

even

Zac Pauga rounds

Round 1Zac Pauga edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mohammed Usman edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 40

Sig Strikes

32 / 50

42.5%

Sig Str %

46%

13 / 41

Total Strikes

33 / 51

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zac Pauga	31 / 46	32 / 47	0 / 0
1	Mohammed Usman	9 / 35	10 / 36	0 / 1
2	Zac Pauga	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0
2	Mohammed Usman	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0

Mohammed Usman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6

Zac Pauga

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4