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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Thomas Petersen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1506

Elo1482

Mohammed UsmanvsThomas PetersenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Saturday, July 20, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thomas Petersen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMohammed Usman: Well-roundedvsThomas Petersen: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Thomas Petersen wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Thomas Petersen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thomas Petersen has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Petersen (53.5%).
Mohammed Usman has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mohammed Usman

Red Corner

Thomas Petersen

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1506

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mohammed Usman

oldest →

KOvs Zac Pauga · Aug 22

vs Junior Tafa · Apr 23

vs Jake Collier · Sep 23

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 24

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Jun 25

latest

Thomas Petersen

oldest →

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Feb 25

vs Don'Tale Mayes · May 25

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Oct 25

DECvs Guilherme Pat · Apr 26

SUBvs Valter Walker · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mohammed UsmanMetricThomas Petersen

3.85

Strikes / min

3.10

4.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

51%

Strike defense

54%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

3.01

66%

Takedown defense

87%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.42evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mohammed UsmanThomas Petersen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mohammed Usman(6 fights)Thomas Petersen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.7|Blue -24.7

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mohammed UsmanTargetThomas Petersen

By target zone

29% acc · 70%

Head

50% acc · 76%

58% acc · 30%

Body

81% acc · 17%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

34% acc · 97%

Distance

54% acc · 95%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mohammed Usman rounds

even

Thomas Petersen rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Thomas Petersen edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Thomas Petersen edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 185

Sig Strikes

76 / 138

34.7%

Sig Str %

54.3%

63 / 185

Total Strikes

98 / 164

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thomas Petersen	22 / 41	24 / 43	0 / 1
1	Mohammed Usman	22 / 50	22 / 50	0 / 0
2	Thomas Petersen	25 / 45	30 / 52	1 / 2
2	Mohammed Usman	17 / 60	17 / 60	0 / 1
3	Thomas Petersen	29 / 52	44 / 69	1 / 2
3	Mohammed Usman	24 / 75	24 / 75	0 / 0

Mohammed Usman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6

Thomas Petersen

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7