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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mohammed Usman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1506

Elo1448

Mohammed UsmanvsJunior TafaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Saturday, April 22, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mohammed Usman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMohammed Usman: Well-roundedvsJunior Tafa: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Mohammed Usman wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Mohammed Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mohammed Usman at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Tafa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mohammed Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mohammed Usman

Red Corner

Junior Tafa

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-118

(54%)

1506

Elo

1448

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mohammed Usman

oldest →

KOvs Zac Pauga · Aug 22

vs Jake Collier · Sep 23

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 24

vs Thomas Petersen · Jul 24

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Jun 25

latest

Junior TafaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Valter Walker · Aug 24

KOvs Sean Sharaf · Oct 24

SUBvs Tuco Tokkos · Jul 25

SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 26

KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mohammed UsmanMetricJunior Tafa

3.85

Strikes / min

3.62

4.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

51%

Strike defense

51%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.00

66%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.42Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mohammed UsmanJunior Tafa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mohammed Usman(6 fights)Junior Tafa(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.2|Blue -58.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mohammed UsmanTargetJunior Tafa

By target zone

21% acc · 86%

Head

31% acc · 77%

100% acc · 14%

Body

83% acc · 23%

Leg

By position

9% acc · 29%

Distance

27% acc · 55%

100% acc · 29%

Clinch

63% acc · 45%

60% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mohammed Usman rounds

even

Junior Tafa rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control3:26

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mohammed Usman edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control4:09

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mohammed Usman edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control4:28

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 29

Sig Strikes

22 / 61

27%

Sig Str %

36%

79 / 133

Total Strikes

37 / 78

2 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

17.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Junior Tafa	8 / 24	11 / 28	0 / 0
1	Mohammed Usman	1 / 12	16 / 36	0 / 4
2	Junior Tafa	6 / 18	13 / 25	0 / 0
2	Mohammed Usman	4 / 12	38 / 59	1 / 5
3	Junior Tafa	8 / 19	13 / 25	0 / 0
3	Mohammed Usman	2 / 5	25 / 38	1 / 3

Mohammed Usman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6

Junior Tafa

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9