Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Collier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mohammed Usman
oldest →L
vs Thomas Petersen · Jul 24W
vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Jun 25 Jake CollierL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Carlos Felipe · Jun 21W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22L
KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mohammed UsmanMetricJake Collier
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.42Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mohammed UsmanJake Collier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mohammed Usman(6 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +32.5|Blue -32.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mohammed UsmanTargetJake Collier
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jake Collier edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:00
41Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:49Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:00
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Mohammed Usman edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control3:07
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
