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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Trevor Peek won · U-DEC R3

Elo1468

Elo1492

Mohammad YahyavsTrevor PeekUFC Prediction Result

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Saturday, October 21, 2023Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Trevor Peek won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Trevor Peek wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Trevor Peek wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevor Peek at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevor Peek enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Trevor Peek is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Mohammad Yahya has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Mohammad Yahya

Red Corner

Trevor Peek

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1468

Elo

1492

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mohammad YahyaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kaue Fernandes · Aug 24

KOvs Steven Nguyen · Jul 25

latest

Trevor PeekL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Erick Gonzalez · Feb 23

vs Chepe Mariscal · Jun 23

vs Charlie Campbell · Apr 24

vs Yanal Ashmouz · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mohammad YahyaMetricTrevor Peek

3.50

Strikes / min

4.39

6.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

43%

Strike defense

43%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

1.45

42%

Takedown defense

52%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.89Δ 3.40 — meaningful gap+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mohammad YahyaTrevor Peek

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mohammad Yahya(3 fights)Trevor Peek(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.9|Blue +23.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mohammad YahyaTargetTrevor Peek

By target zone

40% acc · 65%

Head

52% acc · 52%

67% acc · 33%

Body

70% acc · 26%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

46% acc · 95%

Distance

60% acc · 82%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mohammad Yahya rounds

even

Trevor Peek rounds

Round 1Trevor Peek edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:18

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:13Control

Round 2Trevor Peek edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Trevor Peek edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:06

22Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 92

Sig Strikes

61 / 97

49.3%

Sig Str %

62.7%

47 / 96

Total Strikes

83 / 123

1 / 1

TDs

4 / 7

100%

TD %

54%

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

5:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trevor Peek	16 / 25	25 / 34	1 / 3	0
1	Mohammad Yahya	8 / 13	12 / 17	1 / 1	1
2	Trevor Peek	23 / 39	23 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Mohammad Yahya	21 / 46	21 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Trevor Peek	22 / 33	35 / 50	3 / 4	0
3	Mohammad Yahya	14 / 33	14 / 33	0 / 0	0

Mohammad Yahya

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Trevor Peek

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5