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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Steven Nguyen won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1468

Elo1510

Mohammad YahyavsSteven NguyenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · Saturday, July 26, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Steven Nguyen won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Steven Nguyen wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Steven Nguyen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steven Nguyen at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steven Nguyen is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Mohammad Yahya has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Steven Nguyen has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Steven Nguyen has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mohammad Yahya

Red Corner

Steven Nguyen

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1468

Elo

1510

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mohammad YahyaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Trevor Peek · Oct 23

KOvs Kaue Fernandes · Aug 24

latest

Steven Nguyen

oldest →

vs Jarno Errens · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mohammad YahyaMetricSteven Nguyen

3.50

Strikes / min

7.47

6.39

Strikes absorbed / min

7.10

43%

Strike defense

60%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

0.24

42%

Takedown defense

88%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.89Δ 3.26 — meaningful gap+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mohammad YahyaSteven Nguyen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mohammad Yahya(3 fights)Steven Nguyen(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.1|Blue +41.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mohammad YahyaTargetSteven Nguyen

By target zone

33% acc · 72%

Head

49% acc · 83%

67% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 4%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

86% acc · 13%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 54%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

63% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mohammad Yahya rounds

even

Steven Nguyen rounds

Round 1Steven Nguyen edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns0

59Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

5Knockdowns

Round 2Steven Nguyen edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:50Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 151

Sig Strikes

92 / 174

37%

Sig Str %

52.5%

60 / 154

Total Strikes

108 / 194

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

2:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steven Nguyen	59 / 112	65 / 120	0 / 0
1	Mohammad Yahya	33 / 86	33 / 86	0 / 1
2	Steven Nguyen	33 / 62	43 / 74	0 / 0
2	Mohammad Yahya	24 / 65	27 / 68	0 / 3

Mohammad Yahya

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Steven Nguyen

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2